There isn’t one specific thing I look at — it’s more about the full picture. I try to really understand the business and the model behind it. I check for anything sketchy in the management or ownership structure, how profits are diluted, their track record, how long they’ve been around, etc. That way I get a feel for the company. And if there are major red flags, I just move on — there are so many other opportunities out there, and the risk just isn’t worth it in those cases.
Thanks Noel! Looked at this one a while ago, but this has been a great refresh. Any concerns with the general structure of the company and accessibility to the cash sitting in foreign jurisdictions?
Thanks for the question — yes, there are definitely some structural aspects worth keeping in mind with Deswell. That said, I don’t see them as major concerns.
As mentioned, the company operates through subsidiaries in China and Macao, while being incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. The holding structure via BVI and Samoa may offer tax advantages, but I’m not a big fan of how little transparency it offers — and it doesn’t provide much protection against regulatory risks either.
Regarding the cash held abroad: while the balance sheet looks clean and the company is debt-free, accessing that cash isn’t exactly straightforward. Dividend repatriation from China is limited by local GAAP rules on what counts as “distributable profits,” and there’s a 10% withholding tax. Capital transfers to and from PRC subsidiaries also require regulatory approval and fall under strict SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) oversight.
Even the company itself acknowledges that these restrictions could impact its ability to pay dividends going forward.
Gotcha, appreciate it! Well, I salivate over the numbers, but the complexity you outline here does give me a little pause. DSWL in a basket approach would give me more peace of mind.
Lovely write-up. It's a deep discount to NAV but even better just doing the math off this post, I believe it trades at a small discount to net cash (correct me if wrong idk this business). Meaning if the business goes bust in China, the receivables are bad, inventory is set on fire, and everything is a pile of ashes at the factories, the cash + short term bonds at the bank will net you a small gain. Solid margin of safety, I need to look at this one. Thanks!
Are you able to purchase it? Fidelity does not allow a purchase on this security and I’m wondering if it’s a micro cap china thing or if I need to open a new brokerage account for similar purchases?
I have made it my bread and butter to target and expose China hustle stocks. This company smells fishy and ought to be avoided. The story is just too good to be true. 8% dividend yield on a 48M capitalization Macau based company registered in the virgin Islands ?
Too risky for my taste. Btw, I wonder who is the company underwriter and auditor.
It is a matter of preference and risk tolerance. I have dealt with enough Chinese stocks to be distrustful of their quantitative metrics.
I can only bet on a Chinese company when it possesses a certain level of brand equity that allows it to standout in the market. Even then there is still a high probability of dealing with a “ fraud.”
Thanks for your writing. Still have my problems with such "deep value" companies … total return 3y -20.39% vs. +23,87 SP500… total return 5y 46.45% vs. +117.30 SP500 … total return 10y 118.13% vs. 170.1% SP500 … so why would I invest in this company ???
First of all, you don’t have to invest in this company. My write-ups aren’t meant to be full investment theses or deep due diligence reports. I just try to find stocks trading below fair value and share them — more as a starting point for your own DD or analysis, and to bring overlooked names back on your radar.
Regarding Deswell: You’re right, the S&P has massively outperformed Deswell in the past — and it might continue to do so. But the thesis behind value investing is that some stocks occasionally trade far below their fair value, often just because the market isn’t paying attention. Mr. Market isn’t always rational. Every now and then, he offers you a company at a price you'd never see in a private sale. The idea is that eventually, the market will recognize the true value — and when it does, you’ve got a decent upside as an investor.
when you find a small illiquid chinese company what do you look at exactly to make sure that is not a scam?
There isn’t one specific thing I look at — it’s more about the full picture. I try to really understand the business and the model behind it. I check for anything sketchy in the management or ownership structure, how profits are diluted, their track record, how long they’ve been around, etc. That way I get a feel for the company. And if there are major red flags, I just move on — there are so many other opportunities out there, and the risk just isn’t worth it in those cases.
Reminds me of Micheal burry write up
Thanks a lot. Really nice comment!
Thanks Noel! Looked at this one a while ago, but this has been a great refresh. Any concerns with the general structure of the company and accessibility to the cash sitting in foreign jurisdictions?
Thanks for the question — yes, there are definitely some structural aspects worth keeping in mind with Deswell. That said, I don’t see them as major concerns.
As mentioned, the company operates through subsidiaries in China and Macao, while being incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. The holding structure via BVI and Samoa may offer tax advantages, but I’m not a big fan of how little transparency it offers — and it doesn’t provide much protection against regulatory risks either.
Regarding the cash held abroad: while the balance sheet looks clean and the company is debt-free, accessing that cash isn’t exactly straightforward. Dividend repatriation from China is limited by local GAAP rules on what counts as “distributable profits,” and there’s a 10% withholding tax. Capital transfers to and from PRC subsidiaries also require regulatory approval and fall under strict SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) oversight.
Even the company itself acknowledges that these restrictions could impact its ability to pay dividends going forward.
What’s your take?
Gotcha, appreciate it! Well, I salivate over the numbers, but the complexity you outline here does give me a little pause. DSWL in a basket approach would give me more peace of mind.
Lovely write-up. It's a deep discount to NAV but even better just doing the math off this post, I believe it trades at a small discount to net cash (correct me if wrong idk this business). Meaning if the business goes bust in China, the receivables are bad, inventory is set on fire, and everything is a pile of ashes at the factories, the cash + short term bonds at the bank will net you a small gain. Solid margin of safety, I need to look at this one. Thanks!
I'm happy you liked it! And yes, you're right, the margin of safety here is pretty solid.
Are you able to purchase it? Fidelity does not allow a purchase on this security and I’m wondering if it’s a micro cap china thing or if I need to open a new brokerage account for similar purchases?
I have made it my bread and butter to target and expose China hustle stocks. This company smells fishy and ought to be avoided. The story is just too good to be true. 8% dividend yield on a 48M capitalization Macau based company registered in the virgin Islands ?
Too risky for my taste. Btw, I wonder who is the company underwriter and auditor.
Where do you think Noel’s analysis is flawed?
It is a matter of preference and risk tolerance. I have dealt with enough Chinese stocks to be distrustful of their quantitative metrics.
I can only bet on a Chinese company when it possesses a certain level of brand equity that allows it to standout in the market. Even then there is still a high probability of dealing with a “ fraud.”
Stock is just to risky for me!
Wai Ming Lau is the daughter of Richard Pui Hon Lau.
https://www.secform4.com/13dg/2025014/0001174947-24-000765.html
Thanks for your writing. Still have my problems with such "deep value" companies … total return 3y -20.39% vs. +23,87 SP500… total return 5y 46.45% vs. +117.30 SP500 … total return 10y 118.13% vs. 170.1% SP500 … so why would I invest in this company ???
First of all, you don’t have to invest in this company. My write-ups aren’t meant to be full investment theses or deep due diligence reports. I just try to find stocks trading below fair value and share them — more as a starting point for your own DD or analysis, and to bring overlooked names back on your radar.
Regarding Deswell: You’re right, the S&P has massively outperformed Deswell in the past — and it might continue to do so. But the thesis behind value investing is that some stocks occasionally trade far below their fair value, often just because the market isn’t paying attention. Mr. Market isn’t always rational. Every now and then, he offers you a company at a price you'd never see in a private sale. The idea is that eventually, the market will recognize the true value — and when it does, you’ve got a decent upside as an investor.
Hi Drazen!
Did you take into account all the dividends paid by the company into the return calculations?
Yes
how much of that 32% "china" is usa...?